Exposure

If you don't understand exposure, you've got no shot at walking away a winner.

Why

Craps, like everything in the casino, is a losing proposition. Every roll of the dice has the potential to take some, or all, of your money. When you're planning out or playing a strategy, it's critical that you understand where your exposure is, and how quickly you can cover things up.

What

Exposure at the craps table comes in 3 major forms:

1. Depth: How much of your bankroll is exposed to loss

2. Breadth: How many dice combinations beat you

3. Length: How long is your bankroll exposed

Depth - Bankroll Exposure

• What percentage of your buy-in is in action?

• Is your action always at risk?

  • i.e. Come Bets vs Place Bets, Hop Bets vs Hardways

Breadth - What can beat you

• What do you have covered

• What combinations beat you

• Can you mitigate some or all of them with a hedge

• Does a hedge make sense

  • Long term and short term hedges (Some are contracts)

  • When does it financial sense?

    • Hedging a $5 bet is probably=75*3 silly, but $500?

Length - How long are you exposed

• How many wins does it take to "break even" or "get out of the hand"

• How many rolls do nothing for you

• Do you have enough coverage

  • Will you be there forever waiting for your $30 6 to hit?

How

• Know the payouts

• Know the probabilities

• Know the house edge

• Know what hedges what

• Understand all the hops

Examples

Hawaiian Horn

• Depth: Very Deep ($310)

• Length: Very Short (1 Roll)

• Breadth: 7 is the killer. Non-Horns cost you $20, feeding the edge.

Iron Cross

• Depth: Varies ($100)

• Length: Medium-High (5 hits to break even, if only collecting)

• Breadth: 7 is the killer. Non-Horns cost you $20, feeding the edge.

6 & 8

• Depth: Varies ($24)

• Length: High (10/36 ways to collect, need 2 to break even)

• Breadth: 7 is the killer (6 rolls), Everything else (20 rolls) is non-productive

Inside

• Depth: Varies ($44)

• Length: Medium (18/36 ways to collect, need 4 to break even)

• Breadth: 7 is the killer (6 rolls), Everything else (12 rolls) is non-productive

Hops

• Depth: Generally Small ($2)

• Length: Short (1 Roll)

• Breadth: Only 2 or 3 ways to win out of 36

• Compare this to placing

  • On a hop 5, you have 4 ways to win (9/36)

    • 8 rolls lose you $2

    • 1 roll, you win $14, but your net is -$2

  • Vs: Place the 5 for $10

    • The 8 non-productive rolls do not cost you

    • The 1 that wins nets you $14

    • You're exposed to the 7 for all 8 rolls, though

      • If it shows once, you'd lose $10 and net $4 on the hit

Video