# Welcome to Pro Craps

Craps Strategies, Theories, Opinions, and all sorts of other craps you might find interesting

Dedicated to playing Craps at a "Professional Level" ... not as a profession, but as a professional. We are highly focused on money management, discipline, practice, and honing our skills so that our time at the craps table is productive and hopefully more lucrative.

We'll certainly work in some strategy, as that's the nature of winning at this game, but our principal focus is on skill building and refinement so that while we're playing our strategies we can be on autopilot.

What you can expect from our channel?

Honest, opinionated (yet fact based) discussions and commentary on

* Bankroll and Money Management
* Discipline
* Practice planning and drills
* Learning how to play with purpose
* Tools and Tech that we use to get better
* Live strategy discussions and debates with our subscribers

Thanks in advance for subscribing and for using the comments section to provide feedback, ask questions, and of course, to call us out when you feel the need.

Welcome to Pro Craps!

## YouTube

Check us out on YouTube where we run a few different video series.

{% embed url="<https://youtube.com/channel/UCTPOXVt3jOPRS_Og8U3Ptnw>" %}
Pro Craps on YouTube
{% endembed %}

| Educational Videos                                                        | Live Streams           |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------- |
| [Strategy Building](https://youtube.com/channel/UCTPOXVt3jOPRS_Og8U3Ptnw) | ☕️ Coffee and Craps    |
| Practicing Like a Pro                                                     | 🥃 Cocktails and Craps |

For all of our educational videos on strategy building and practice, the show notes and other information and resources can be found on the left. These are released roughly once a week or so, depending on our filming schedule.

☕️ **Coffee and Craps** is produced generally 3 times per week. We use this live stream to simulate a trip to a casino where we put our money and our strategies on the line to demonstrate money management, rail management, discipline, and working a strategy under pressure. This is done live and interactive with your comments.

🥃 **Cocktails and Craps** is generally live-streamed once per week, but not on a regular schedule. We use this time to break down strategies, tweak things, find holes and prep for future casino trips. Often, we'll run these episodes with other YouTubers or subscribers. Very fun and entertaining to debate and collaborate with folks in real time.

If you're interested in working with us on a strategy build live on an episode of Cocktails and Craps, please feel free to reach out to us we'll talk through the logistics.

## Podcast: Fireside Craps

Subscribe to our weekly podcast. We go places here that we don't on YouTube. Great conversations, stories, opinions and other stuff that doesn't make sense on a video, but should be a lot of fun in the car or while you're walking the dog.

{% embed url="<https://anchor.fm/firesidecraps>" %}

## Get In Touch With Us!

Have an idea for a show? A new strategy? A great story to share? Let us know\...

1. Head to our Podcast and [leave a voice message](https://anchor.fm/firesidecraps/message)&#x20;
2. Head to our [general discussion panel](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCTPOXVt3jOPRS_Og8U3Ptnw/discussion) on our YouTube channel

We review everything, so all good ideas (and yes, even your rants) have a chance to make it on air!


# The Pro Craps Method

Play like a pro ... not professionally, but up your game to pro-level and you'll increase your odds of walking out on top, and having far more fun doing it.

### Why

Let's not make this any easier on the Casinos than we have to. There are plenty of others out there that do that for us. We know:

* The Casinos have the edge on us, even if it's slight, it's constant over time
* There is no such thing as a strategy that's a guaranteed way to win
* In fact, over time, you will lose

This is the nature of gambling. It's inherently a risk. Gambling puts your money at risk, period.

We may not be able to flip the advantage, but we can manage our money and our strategies so that when the averages tilt to our favor, we're physically there, we're properly financed financed, and we're practiced and ready to jump on that opportunity. Most importantly, we'll have the discipline to walk.

Can we flip the advantage? In short bursts, yes. But it's going to take planning, practice and work.

### What

In order to have a chance at long term success, you need to be on your game. All the time.

The 10 Commandments of Playing Like a Pro.&#x20;

#### 1. Only gamble with money you can afford to lose

Bring money set aside for the purpose of entertainment

#### 2. Manage your gambling money separately

Create a 401(g) account and treat this like a business

* Gas money
* Flight
* Hotels
* Supplies
* And your time at the table

#### 3. Plan everything

Know ahead of time how much you're walking in with, and what you plan to walk out with

If you're playing multiple sessions in a day (i.e. a Vegas Vacation), only bring one session's worth of money to the floor with you.

Plan your meals, breaks, and other activities.

#### 4. Track and log everything

Use a spreadsheet or a ledger to track every session.&#x20;

* It'll keep you accountable
* It'll give you information
* It'll help you see how you're progressing towards your goals.

#### 5. Set an achievable "Win Goal" and stick to it

Think in terms of percentages, not dollars.

If you're buying in for $300 a 20% goal is $60. If you're at a higher level, add zeroes or other multiples.&#x20;

* $2500 = $500 in winnings
* $10,000 = $2000

At the lower bankroll, that might seem silly. What's $60? **It's 20%**

If you reliably had a 20% gain in your stock portfolio or your 401(k),  you'd be investigated by the feds. If your house goes up 20% every year, you'd be in great shape.

Why isn't 20% or 25% enough at the casino? It's simple relativism.&#x20;

* You've had a few great runs where you've colored up $500 on a $200 buy-in.&#x20;
* You can't let go of the fact that $60 is a tangible amount, and isn't enough to fill your gas tank and get a burger on the way home

This is what the casino is counting on. They play the long game, leeching a paltry 2% from you (on average) every hour. $2 per hundred is way less than $20, but look at those buildngs and those lights.

Play the long game against them, and don't get sucked into a hot streak or you'l burn your bankroll.

#### 6. Use the "Rule of 10s"

The Rule of 10s gives of 10 chances to make our profit goal. It lets us "survive" the ups and downs of our sessions so that we'll be at the table when the hot roll comes.

It takes a bit of planning and discipline, but sticking to this simple rule will keep you more in touch with with your bankroll. Having 10 cracks at it is a huge stress reliever, as well. You can play a little bit looser, although with maybe a little less active money than you're probably used to.

* Divide your 401(g) account into 10 sessions
  * Bring only 1 session out of your 401(g) acount to the casino
    * Don't dip into your pocket or your 401(g) if you lose it. If you lose, you walk
* At the table, divide your session $ into 10
  * For each of 10 shooters, bet only that amount
    * Do not dip into your profits or your remaining bankroll should you go to zero on a shooter

#### 7. Play for the win by planning for the loss

The Rule of 10s is an all-in strategy. We're planning on using the entire session buy-in to win that 20%. If you were only willing to lose half of it, then only bring half of it, and then play for 5 shooters.&#x20;

Bet what you brought, it's the only way to survive the table until it heats up for you and matches up with your strategy.  This holds true for your 401(g) account as well. You've got 10 shots in there, plan to use them all to make your goals.&#x20;

* Be willing to lose your entire session
* Be willing to lose your entire alotment on any given shooter
* You've budgeted for 10 shooters, use them all
* ... be willing to lose the entire session&#x20;
  * Know that you've got more cracks at it in your 401(g)

***BUT: Do not chase your losses!***

Chasing our gambling losses means using house money (your actual house's money). Don't do it.

* Be a machine
* You're going to have bad sessions as well as good
* The 401(g) account and the Rule of 10s is designed to withstand periodic loss
* Go home, take your lumps
* **Assess** what happened
* **Address** your weakness or mistakes
* **Adjust** your strategy for next time

#### 9. Develop and Practice Your Strategy(ies)

No switching mid-stream, unless you've prepped for a mitigation at the same dollar level and have a solid reason for a switch. There's no such thing as a "cold table" or a "hot shooter" ... the only things you can reliably count on are vetted controlled shooters, maybe yourself, and the actual random probabilities.

It's not a bad idea to have a strategy for you and a strategy for everyone else. Setup your session to account for that.

No random prop or side bets when you're "feeling it" unless you've budgeted for it, or took a win so that you could do it. This is one of the biggest sources of leakage, accounting for the casino's house edge.

#### 9. Practice your throws

Even if you're not a "Dice Controller" or "Influencer" ... even if you think that's impossible ... practice your throws.&#x20;

Yes. **Every throw is random.** But some are more random than others, and you can give yourself a far better shot at extending rolls if you develop a soft, consistent shot that doesn't fly all over the board. Contrary to the naysayers ... running your dice off of chip stacks and people's hands does make a scientific difference. The more times a "match" to the landed die shows, the more chances it has to match up. The less violent your throw, the less rotations and skittering you get off the backwall, the better your shot is.

And if you can actually influence the dice, even a little bit, that effect can be pretty drastic.

See our "Truth about Dice Control" and "Respect the 7" videos for more on this.

#### 10. Be a machine

Learn to love discipline in every aspect of the gambling experience, specifically your money. Be an ATM machine ...&#x20;

* Application of Strategy
* Knowledge of the game (payouts, etc)
* Practice money management
* Recognize when you're done, and actually be done.
* Stick to your core strategies
  * Do not get sucked into hot/cold tables or allow emotion to guide you
* Budget separately for fun
  * Side Bets, Tokes, Drinks

### How

[Tracking Software](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1guOGSmhXrZghUE0ePRGLuLf1mU2rK7Wzomqxni0-lQY/copy)

1. Log all 401(g) account activity into a spreadsheet
2. Plan your sessions
3. Plan your trips
4. Look into the future and see how your bankroll and session money can project to grow


# Bankroll Control

Having a great money management strategy begins at the top, with a proper bankroll, and requires knowledge, planning and discipline to keep you on track.

### Why

Let's not make this any easier on the Casinos than we have to. There are plenty of others out there that do that for us. We know:

* The Casinos have the edge on us, even if it's slight, it's constant over time
* There is no such thing as a strategy that's a guaranteed way to win
* In fact, over time, you will lose

This is the nature of gambling. It's inherently a risk. Gambling puts your money at risk, period.

We may not be able to flip the advantage, but we can manage our money and our strategies so that when the averages tilt to our favor, we're physically there, we're properly financed financed, and we're practiced and ready to jump on that opportunity. Most importantly, we'll have the discipline to walk.

Can we flip the advantage? In short bursts, yes. But it's going to take planning, practice and work.

### What

In order to have a chance at long term success, you need to be on your game. All the time.

The 10 Pillars of Money Management.&#x20;

#### 1. Only gamble with money you can afford to lose

Bring money set aside for the purpose of entertainment

#### 2. Manage your gambling money separately

Create a 401(g) account

* Gas money
* Flight
* Hotels
* Supplies
* And your time at the table

#### 3. Plan everything

Know ahead of time how much you're walking in with, and what you plan to walk out with

If you're playing multiple sessions in a day (i.e. a Vegas Vacation), only bring one session's worth of money to the floor with you.

Plan your meals, breaks, and other activities.

#### 4. Track and log everything

Use a spreadsheet or a ledger to track every session.&#x20;

* It'll keep you accountable
* It'll give you information
* It'll help you see how you're progressing towards your goals.

#### 5. Set an achievable "Win Goal" and stick to it

Think in terms of percentages, not dollars.

If you're buying in for $300 a 20% goal is $60. If you're at a higher level, add zeroes or other multiples.&#x20;

* $2500 = $500 in winnings
* $10,000 = $2000

At the lower bankroll, that might seem silly. What's $60? **It's 20%**

If you reliably had a 20% gain in your stock portfolio or your 401(k),  you'd be investigated by the feds. If your house goes up 20% every year, you'd be in great shape.

Why isn't 20% or 25% enough at the casino? It's simple relativism.&#x20;

* You've had a few great runs where you've colored up $500 on a $200 buy-in.&#x20;
* You can't let go of the fact that $60 is a tangible amount, and isn't enough to fill your gas tank and get a burger on the way home

This is what the casino is counting on. They play the long game, leeching a paltry 2% from you (on average) every hour. $2 per hundred is way less than $20, but look at those buildngs and those lights.

Play the long game against them, and don't get sucked into a hot streak or you'l burn your bankroll.

#### 6. Use the "Rule of 10s"

The Rule of 10s gives of 10 chances to make our profit goal. It lets us "survive" the ups and downs of our sessions so that we'll be at the table when the hot roll comes.

It takes a bit of planning and discipline, but sticking to this simple rule will keep you more in touch with with your bankroll. Having 10 cracks at it is a huge stress reliever, as well. You can play a little bit looser, although with maybe a little less active money than you're probably used to.

* Divide your 401(g) account into 10 sessions
  * Bring only 1 session out of your 401(g) acount to the casino
    * Don't dip into your pocket or your 401(g) if you lose it. If you lose, you walk
* At the table, divide your session $ into 10
  * For each of 10 shooters, bet only that amount
    * Do not dip into your profits or your remaining bankroll should you go to zero on a shooter

#### 7. Play for the win by planning for the loss

The Rule of 10s is an all-in strategy. We're planning on using the entire session buy-in to win that 20%. If you were only willing to lose half of it, then only bring half of it, and then play for 5 shooters.&#x20;

Bet what you brought, it's the only way to survive the table until it heats up for you and matches up with your strategy.  This holds true for your 401(g) account as well. You've got 10 shots in there, plan to use them all to make your goals.&#x20;

* Be willing to lose your entire session
* Be willing to lose your entire alottment on any given shooter
* You've budgeted for 10 shooters, use them all
* ... be willing to lose the entire session&#x20;
  * Know that you've got more cracks at it in your 401(g)

#### 8. Stick to your strategy

No switching mid-stream, unless you've prepped for a mitigation at the same dollar level and have a solid reason for a switch. There's no such thing as a "cold table" or a "hot shooter" ... the only things you can reliably count on are vetted controlled shooters, maybe yourself, and the actual random probabilities.

It's not a bad idea to have a strategy for you and a strategy for everyone else. Setup your session to account for that.

No random prop or side bets when you're "feeling it" unless you've budgeted for it, or took a win so that you could do it. This is one of the biggest sources of leakage, accounting for the casino's house edge.

#### 9. Do not chase your losses

Chasing our gambling losses means using house money (your actual house's money). Don't do it.

* Be a machine
* You're going to have bad sessions as well as good
* The 401(g) account and the Rule of 10s is designed to withstand periodic loss
* Go home, take your lumps
* Assess what happened
* Address your weakness or mistakes
* Adjust your strategy for next time

#### 10. Be a machine

Learn to love discipline in every aspect of the gambling experience, specifically your money. Be an ATM machine ...&#x20;

* Application of Strategy
* Knowledge of the game (payouts, etc)
* Practice money management
* Recognize when you're done, and actually be done.
* Budget separately for fun
  * Side Bets, Tokes, Drinks

####

### How

[Tracking Software](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1guOGSmhXrZghUE0ePRGLuLf1mU2rK7Wzomqxni0-lQY/copy)

1. Log all 401(g) account activity into a spreadsheet
2. Plan your sessions
3. Plan your trips
4. Look into the future and see how your bankroll and session money can project to grow

### Video

{% embed url="<https://youtu.be/24xtnQC6I2k>" %}


# At the table: Rail & Session

Quit leaking money! This game is hard enough with you not knowing what you have in your rack, where you stand, and when you're up enough to get out!

### Why

We need information to make good decisions. If your rack is a disaster, you can't possibly tell where you stand. And if you don't know where you stand, you're going to make mistakes.

### What

Keep your rack organized, separated into quadrants, each with a purpose

1. Back Right: Your bankroll
2. Back Left: Tip/Drink/Extra Money
3. Front Right: Profits
4. Front Left: Action

### Bankroll Section

Here, you keep your session bankroll.&#x20;

Divide the chips in your bankroll into logical chunks, using either white chips or acrylic lammers to visually separate your chips into sections. The goal here is to be able to look down at your rack and know instantly  and exactly how much bankroll you have left, and how many more shooters you can play on.

* If you're playing a strategy where you have designated a set amount per shooter, each section should be one shooter's worth of chips
* If you're playing a strategy where you are moving money more fluidly, you'll want to separate your bankroll into color-up values (5 reds or 4 greens, or 5 blacks, etc)

> NEVER put money onto the table from this section!

### Action Section

Use this section to work with the money on the table, during an active roll/shooter.

* Money only enters the table from this section
* Money leaves the table only to this section

It's important to use this as the basis of your discipline. If you set aside 7 chips per shooter, and this section ends up empty because either you lost it all or it's all on the table in action, that's it.

Your rack is providing you information, and a sense of where you are at any given moment.

### Profit Section

Any profits you have go here, divided into color-up sections with lammers or chips

When do you have a profit? When you have your **full initial bankroll** in your bankroll section, anything extra goes here. This is your potential "take home". As soon as you have your initial bankroll back and a profit that matches your goal, be disciplined enough to leave.

Again, use the information your rack provides you to know exactly when that point is.

### Tip and Extra Money Section

Load this up with singles and other small chip amounts. It's a good idea to keep feeding this from the "change" you win on some of your other bets. Use this section for:

* Dealer Tokes
* Drink Tips
* Addng a dollar to pay out to level up (i.e. $15 for $1 on a winning $10 bet on the 5 or 9)
* Dropping the occasional Hardway or Horn to cover something

> This is not money you intend to gamble with as part of your ongoing strategy. Use this to get the dealers involved, and to make making change easier, not as a way to press up your active bets.

### Working the Rack

As you play, follow these basic guidelines

* When a new shooter is starting out, pull one shooters worth of money from your bankroll and move it to the Action section
* When that shooter or hand is completed
  * Evaluate your rack
  * Take whatever money have in the Active section and first: Replenish your bankroll to it's startng value, if you can.
  * Take any remaining chips and move them to the Profit section
  * Evaluate where you are
    * If you are not at your profit goal, pull another shooter's worth of chips to the action section and start the process again
    * You may need to pull chips out of profit if you are no longer at max bankroll.

### Video

{% embed url="<https://youtu.be/Eg_000BeCRo>" %}


# Respect the 7

You're only a turn of the die away from disaster

### Why

The 7 comes, on average, every 6 rolls. We all know this. But to really understand why this is the case,  you need to connect with the dice themselves.

### What

* Every number has a sister number, on the opposite side of the die
* These numbers always add to 7
* The dice don't land and stop at the same time. So, as soon as one die has stopped
  * No matter what face of that die is showing,  you can always make a seven with the other die
  * There is ALWAYS a possible match to make a 7
  * 1 can be matched by 6
  * 2 by 5
  * 3 by 4
  * 4 by 3
  * 5 by 2
  * 6 by 1
* This is not true of any other number
  * For example, if one die is showing a 5, the total can never be 2, 3, 4, or 5

That's some insane power. It's not just about the number of possible combinations. There's not "that much" statistical difference between the 5 ways to roll a 6 or an 8 and the 6 ways to roll a 7. It's only 1 roll extra.&#x20;

The power is in the way that the extra combination manifests, and the fact that you are always, 100% of the time halfway to a 7 on every single roll of the dice. This is an inescapable fact and it is the reason we have the 1:6 chance on every roll of seeing big red.

### So ... what do we do about it?

#### Strategy

Especially with random shooters, every strategy should include some play on the 7.

* Pure don't play
* Hybrid play (i.e. Iron Cross from the Don't Pass)
* Mixing in DC bets with place bets (maybe later in a hand)
* Laying bets to accommodate other strategy
* Embrace the "Short Game" if your bankroll allows for it

#### Dice Influence

They say (as do the numbers) that the 7 comes every 6 rolls? Does that mean that after 5 rolls it's 90% more likely to roll? That on the 8th roll it's overdue? That it can't roll on the first one? That it can't repeat?&#x20;

All false. The 7 has a 1 in 6 rolling on every roll. There's no snowball or anything other than pure mechanics behind this.

The more the dice skitter and roll, where every face is up at some point, the greater the chances of matching up with the already stopped die. This is why casinos are moving to even more bouncy surfaces, to promote more face contact.

It's also why Dice Influencers decry the "Crazy Random Shooter". We like seeing less activity on the dice. Less chances for that marriage to happen.&#x20;

Can you mitigate the reality of random? Yes.

First, let's look at how it happens. We know that when 1 die stops, the other die is literally a turn away from  matching up and being a 7.  If the dice come off the wall hot, and one is spinning and rolling wildly after the first on che stops ...

* Every time it does a full rotation in a tumble, the sister number to the already stopped die shows up.
* If that die rolls over 5 times, there's 5 times that it could stop on the sister number
* If that die rolls over only once (or less than once), you reduce the number of times it has a chance to match.

We're not saying that it eliminates the possibility, but if you were to be blindfolded and swing a bat at a swinging pinata ... would you rather have one shot at it or 5?  You can bet that the Casino wants 5 swings at that second die matching up with the first one.

**Change how you throw the dice!**

We're not talking about "dice control" here ... whether you believe in that or not is irrelevant. Believe in the facts of opportunity and probability based on the action of the die off the back wall.

* Toss them gently
* Kiss them off the back wall
* Try to get them to roll over only once or twice after the hit
* Reduce the amount of skitter and roll, and you reduce the number of match-up opportunities for the 7

**"Dice Controllers"**

Practiced Dice Influencers attempt to more forcefully mitigate the pure randomness to some degree by taking all of that and adding additional accuracy,  controlling spin and physics, velocity, and angles to "control" what comes.

That's a holy war for a different day, though...

So long as we can better visualize what they're doing and why, we can be more tactical&#x20;

Controllers are doing all the same things ....

* Very soft toss
* Very consistent landings
* Very consistent energy off the back wall
* (All the same things that we're talking about above!)

Additionally, they:

* &#x20;"set" the dice to try and hide the sevens inside the axis
* Throw with consistent spin to help control the action after the hit.
* IF...&#x20;
  * The dice land flat, they are likely to re-lauch flat
  * They hit the diamonds and hopefully the only 7 combination is from an over-pitch
    * Bounce straight back (nipple hit)
    * Bounce straight down (slap the underside)
    * Spin Sideways&#x20;

A lot has to go right, and in slow-motion it actually looks pretty random, but that's what's actually happening on many controlled throws.

Where does it go south? When the dice don't land flat, were thrown on an angle, or hit the diamonds askew. Most controlled throws have that element of random in them because of human imperfection, but it's that 15-20% that can knock the 7 back 2, 3 or more times.

### Video

{% embed url="<https://youtu.be/FJSgnq2jT30>" %}


# House Edge


# Odds

{% embed url="<https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/odds>" %}

{% embed url="<https://chipy.com/academy/baccarat/baccarat-odds>" %}

{% embed url="<https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/card-counting/>" %}

{% embed url="<https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/calculator/>" %}


# Probabilities


# Exposure

If you don't understand exposure, you've got no shot at walking away a winner.

### Why

Craps, like everything in the casino, is a losing proposition. Every roll of the dice has the potential to take some, or all, of your money. When you're planning out or playing a strategy, it's critical that you understand where your exposure is, and how quickly you can cover things up.

### What

Exposure at the craps table comes in 3 major forms:

1. **Depth**: How much of your bankroll is exposed to loss
2. **Breadth**: How many dice combinations beat you&#x20;
3. **Length**: How long is your bankroll exposed

#### Depth - Bankroll Exposure

* What percentage of your buy-in is in action?
* Is your action always at risk?
  * i.e. Come Bets vs Place Bets, Hop Bets vs Hardways

#### Breadth - What can beat you

* What do you have covered
* What combinations beat you
* Can you mitigate some or all of them with a hedge
* Does a hedge make sense
  * Long term and short term hedges (Some are contracts)
  * When does it financial sense?
    * Hedging a $5 bet is probably=75\*3 silly, but $500?

#### Length - How long are you exposed

* How many wins does it take to "break even" or "get out of the hand"
* How many rolls do nothing for you
* Do you have enough coverage
  * Will you be there forever waiting for your $30 6 to hit?

### How

* Know the payouts
* Know the probabilities
* Know the house edge
* Know what hedges what
* Understand all the hops

### Examples

**Hawaiian Horn**

* Depth: Very Deep ($310)
* Length: Very Short (1 Roll)
* Breadth: 7 is the killer. Non-Horns cost you $20, feeding the edge.

**Iron Cross**

* Depth: Varies ($100)
* Length: Medium-High (5 hits to break even, if only collecting)
* Breadth: 7 is the killer. Non-Horns cost you $20, feeding the edge.

**6 & 8**

* Depth: Varies ($24)
* Length: High (10/36 ways to collect, need 2 to break even)
* Breadth: 7 is the killer (6 rolls), Everything else (20 rolls) is non-productive

**Inside**

* Depth: Varies ($44)
* Length: Medium (18/36 ways to collect, need 4 to break even)
* Breadth: 7 is the killer (6 rolls), Everything else (12 rolls) is non-productive

**Hops**

* Depth: Generally Small ($2)
* Length: Short (1 Roll)
* Breadth: Only 2 or 3 ways to win out of 36
* Compare this to placing
  * On a hop 5, you have 4 ways to win (9/36)
    * 8 rolls lose you $2
    * 1 roll, you win $14, but your net is -$2
  * Vs: Place the 5 for $10
    * The 8 non-productive rolls do not cost you
    * The 1 that wins nets you $14
    * You're exposed to the 7 for all 8 rolls, though
      * If it shows once, you'd lose $10 and net $4 on the hit

### Video

{% embed url="<https://youtu.be/vzM254CIXTI>" %}


# Variance


# Trends and Streaks


# Your "Personality"

Should dictate your play style and techniques

### Cautious&#x20;

Hybrid, Hedge, Line, Short Game&#x20;

### Aggressive&#x20;

Right or Dark, Heavy Odds & Press&#x20;

### Mathlete&#x20;

Line, Probability, Short Game&#x20;

### Thinker&#x20;

Probability, Mathy Hybrids&#x20;

### Feel&#x20;

Trend, Streak, Controlled Thrower


# Bankroll and Play Style

Does your bankroll match your personality type?

Do you feel "forced" into playing in a way that doesn't match your personality?

How can we merge these two factors?


# Goals and Play Style

### What are your goals?

* Consistent Wins?
* Disposable Income?
* Comps?
* Chip Porn?

Does your play style, personality, and bankroll match up with your goals?


# "Paycheck" Mentality


# Home Run Swings


# 3 Phase Play


# Grinding It Out


# Short Stack

References

{% embed url="<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XA9lcv9mrw>" %}


# Building a Strategy: Overview

Simply playing a strategy you read in a book or saw on YouTube isn't good enough. You need work with it, know it inside and out, and what its designed for, or you're going to get pummeled

### Why

It's important to have 100% confidence in your strategies and to really know where they are strongest and weakest. It'll help you to determine which strategy is right for every situation, shooter, trend and table.

> Some strategies are great at lower limit tables (Regressions), but are tough at a high limit table unless you have a huge bankroll. So, have a few well practiced strategies in your pocket.

There's lots of strategies out there, well documented. Here's some criteria you can use to not only evaluate them, but to build your own from scratch, or based on one you've seen elsewhere.

### What

**What is a strategy?**

Unlike other table games, where strategy is pretty much done by following a prescribed plan or memorized card, Craps (and to an extent, Roulette) requires a bit more nuance to fully create a strategy designed to win.

### The Hallmarks of a Great Craps Strategy

1. **Wins more often than it loses**\
   No strategy can win 100% of the time (house edge ensures that)
2. **Strong against short rolls (<4)**\
   80% of rolls are only 4 numbers after the point. \
   Just 2.7-3.25 of those are box numbers!
3. **Profits on long rolls**    &#x20;
4. **Responds well to trends**
5. **Is tuned for a given type of shooter:** \
   random\
   rhythm\
   controlled\
   yourself
6. **Has a specific goal, purpose, and play type:** \
   grind\
   party\
   short game\
   going big
7. **Has a win goal**

### The 3 Major Components of a Craps Strategy

1. **Coverage:** What numbers/scenarios are you betting on\
   There are common ones: Inside, Outside, Across, Iron Cross, Field\
   Using Math or Trends
2. **Exposure:** How can you get beat?\
   Depth, Length, Width, \
   Can you shift exposure elsewhere?\
   Can/Should you hedge?
3. **Spread:** How much are you betting\
   Minimum, 2x, Greens, Blacks\
   What are you going out with, per-shooter
4. **How will you handle your wins**\
   Collect?\
   Press?\
   Spread?

These are independent vectors or axes of variability.  You can apply the same collect/press strategy to any numbers you're betting on. You can always bet the same numbers but do different things with the profits, etc.

### Testing your strategies

1. Test your strategy on a single shooter only.
2. Test the chip movement, using "if this, then that" given all scenarios
3. Identify Strengths and Weaknesses, filling holes where you can

#### Base Testing a Strategy

* Use and Re-Use the same "golden" set of the most common rolls

**Live and Scale Testing**

* Get on your table and roll it out with 100+ hands
* Write a WinCraps script and run it over 100,000 rolls

### Video

{% embed url="<https://youtu.be/gYTI5AMVJ6I>" %}


# Know Your Bets

What pays what, When bets win, When they lose, etc


# Hedging

Hedge to protect. Hedging to win.


# Pass & Come Odds


# Dark Side Odds


# Playing with "House Money"


# Opening Moves


# Pressing Concerns


# Pressing Patterns

Are you a squish if you never press your bets? Are you a putz if you press into oblivion waiting on the monster, but never collecting? In both cases, yes. Let's find the perfect pressing strategy.

### What

How do we make money in Craps?

1. Get out of the hand ASAP (get back your initial investment and eliminate risk)
2. Get money off the table (collect profit)

How do we make real money in Craps?

1. Get as much money as we can off the table

The only way to do that, though, is to put more money out there. How can we do that without crushing our bankroll? &#x20;

Pressing. Or ... using your profits to increase your bets.

### Why

There are literally hundreds of betting and pressing strategies out there. The YouTube Craps experience is chock full of different ways to press your bets to crush the casino. These range from the simplistic to the insane and almost dangerous. They're all variations of the same basic idea, though, which is to take some or all of your winnings, perhaps adding a little bit more from your bankroll, and increasing your bet sizes.&#x20;

That translates to higher payouts, which, if you repeat the process, turns into increasingly higher profits.

Pressing succeeds, though, only when numbers are getting hit repeatedly.  The reality of that happening is pretty low. In fact, after a point has been established:

> 60% of the time, the 4 and 10 are never hit and only 24% of the time are they hit even once. 5 or more times? Less than 1%

> The 5 and 9? 55% never hit. 25% hit once, roughly 8% chance of the 2nd hit, and only a 1.3% chance they get to 5 hits. It goes down from there.

> How about the 6 & 8, the easiest numbers to hit: 52% never getting hit. 24% chance of getting 2 hits, and about 10% of getting that 3rd hit. After that, it drops into the single digits.

### Pressing Methods Comparisons

Same Bet

* Always Collect

Patrick System

* 1st Hit: Same Bet
* 2nd Hit: Press It
* Thereafter: Press 1 Unit

Double Tap

* 1st Hit: Press
* 2nd Hit: Regress

VDC's WWR

* Press
* Press
* Collect
* (repeat)

Power Press (Lux)

* Always pressing with extra
* Hit the table max

### Takeaways

* Never press a bet that isn't paid for

### Video

{% embed url="<https://youtu.be/wmFiwGRCaGU>" %}


# Positive Progressions

1-3-2-4

1-2-3-4

Paroli

Parlay Press


# Negative Progressions

Up as you lose

* Ladder
* Marty

Up as you don't win

* "The Mind" method


# Regression


# Streak and Trend Betting


# Line Betting


# Progressions


# Parlay Press


# Baccarat


# Dark Side Strategies


# Vitamix


# Backwall Lay


# 3 Point Dolly


# Dolly Ladderson


# Light Side Strategies


# The Mind


# 3 Point Johnny


# The Dallas Drawdown


# Philly Special


# Tier Pressure


# 4/10 Plays

Bank Street

Flip

Ladder


# The Red Cross

The Crossbow is an Iron Cross variant is designed for either short term or transitional play. This strategy features various ways to attack the horn and target our field wins.

### The Setup

| Number | Amount                              | Net per Win |
| ------ | ----------------------------------- | ----------- |
| 5      | $25                                 | $19         |
| 6      | $30                                 | $19         |
| 8      | $30                                 | $19         |
| Field  | $10                                 | $30         |
| Horn   | <p>$6<br>($1 - 3/11, $2 - 2/12)</p> | $24-$26     |

### **The Base Win Amounts**

**On a 5, 6, or 8, you will net $19**

* $35 win for the number being rolled, but ...
* $10 Loss in Field
* $6 loss on the Horn

**2 or 12: Net will be $25**

* $30 win for the number being rolled
* $5 loss from the 3, 11, and the 2/12

3 or 11: Net will be $26 from the horn

* $30 win for the number being rolled
* $4 loss from the 2, 12, and the 3/11

**Field: Net target should be $30**

* On any 1 unit bet, press.&#x20;
  * That 2nd win nets $30
  * Regress back to 1 unit
* Should you hit the 2 or 12 (paying double/triple)
  * Press 1 unit&#x20;
  * Rack the excess

{% hint style="info" %}
As with any "right side" strategy, working your bets on every roll is an option.  You're always fighting the 7, and if you're not making a play on the point with a line bet, that decision is really driven by your personal risk tolerance.
{% endhint %}


# Come Ladder


# Hybrid Strategies


# 555 - 6, 7, 8

$25 Don't Pass

$30 Odds

$30 6 & 8

Sister press, hit, and off


# Hedgeless Horseman


# The Odds Maker

great fun!


# The Border


# The Butterburg

### Goals and Performance <a href="#undefined" id="undefined"></a>

|   Roll Length  |  Performance  |
| :------------: | :-----------: |
|  Come Out 7/11 |      Loss     |
| Come Out Craps |      Win      |
|   Ugly (1,2)   | 2-3 Unit Loss |
|   Short (3-5)  |  3+ = Profit  |
|  Medium (6-10) |               |
|   Long (11+)   |               |

### Bets - Come Out <a href="#undefined" id="undefined"></a>

|     Bet    | Amount |
| :--------: | :----: |
| Don't Pass |   100  |

### Bets - After Point

|     Bet    | Amount |
| :--------: | :----: |
| Don't Pass |   100  |
|      4     |   25   |
|      5     |   25   |
|      6     |   30   |
|      8     |   30   |
|      9     |   25   |
|     10     |   25   |


# Side Bets & Good Times


# Hardway Parlay


# Marching Soldiers


# DIY Repeater


# Framing the Issue

Let's get 2 things straight ... Every roll is random. Humans can control the dice. Huh? Trust me.

### Questions:

#### Correct Terminology

* Dice Controller
* Dice Influencer
* Controlled Shooter
* Experienced Shooter
* Rhythm Roller
* Random Roller

#### Is every throw random?

* Yes, of course
* But is this black and white?
* Are there degrees of random?
  * How does a dice controller try to overcome randomness?

#### What are dice controllers trying to control, exactly, and how?

> This is a great opportunity to share survey results (70% want to avoid 7, 22% want to target #s)

* The 7
  * Prolonging rolls
  * Gaining an advantage over house edge
  * Changing the probabilities
* Targeting numbers specifically

#### Can the dice be controlled?

> Share some reddit, email, and youtube comments here. Unfortunately lots of negative stuff from this side of the argument.

#### The Case For&#x20;

* Physics are real
* Humans are capable of superhuman things
* Practice makes perfect
  * Look at Golf, Archery, Goalball
* The non-quantifyable argument:&#x20;
  * "If it wasn't real, there wouldn't be countermeasures"
  * And there are MANY countermeasures...

#### The Case Against&#x20;

> Share some images of people selling "never lose" systems

* The hardware -- table, back wall makes it actually impossible
* The time suck at the table
* Fantasy land
  * I've tried and failed and have given up on the fantasy
  * It's a unicorn, plain and simple
  * Snake oil salesmen

#### Can it be proven either way?

> Share the machine study and other folks that have tried

* Mechanical trials
* Lack of data
* Slow Motion

### Video

{% embed url="<https://youtu.be/235eIKoI5Og>" %}


# Goal: 7 Avoidance

### Why do we care so much about 7 avoidance?

Follow the math.

Every bet has a house edge built into it. The most basic are the pass/come. These bets have a 1.41% house edge built into them. This is based on a complex formula that is calculated by evaluating the number of ways to win the bet vs the number of ways to lose it.

If you can either

* Increase the probability of winning&#x20;
  * e.g. Make the 7 show up 13/72 instead of 12/72
* Decrease the probability of losing
  * e.g. Make the 7 show up 11/72 instead of 12/72 times

You can erase the edge the casino has and turn that to your advantage.

But that's a big (very big) "IF"

Imagine both of those scenarios on the come-out rolls and from the dark or light side. How would that impact your win percentage? The house edge?

What happens to probability if you can have an effect on the 7?

> Show the Win Craps Probablity Screen Here and play around with some options, along with the Wizard of Odds edge page

### What's involved in making this happen?

1. SRR & SOR are the primary metrics used
2. Die Theory
   1. How does a 7 happen?
3. Overspin and Opportunity

### How do Dice Controllers attack this problem?

1. Reduced energy into the wall
2. Reducing spin rates
3. Setting the dice
4. Trying to perfect some sort of controlled throw
   1. There are many types
   2. There are many obstacles to overcome
5. Logging and Adjusting
   1. Bone Tracker
   2. Craps Nation KPI Sheet
   3. Smart Craps (GTC)

### Is it possible?

1. There's an enormous number of things that have to go right on your end
2. The casinos have countermeasures in place to prevent you from doing the things that work
   1. Bouncy tables, Spiked walls, rules agains setting, rules forcing hard hits
3. This is climbing Mt Olympus blindfolded, with a broken leg, on crutches, in random weather
4. Stay Tuned ....

### Video

{% embed url="<https://youtu.be/-7FZSLkceEU>" %}


# Goal: Targeting Numbers

Are Dice Controllers targeting specific numbers? Groups? ... or are they really just hoping for the best?

### Intentional Shooting

An intentional shooter is exactly that -- someone that throws with the intent of hitting a single number or a number within a small group of expected numbers. &#x20;

### Sniping Numbers or Group Targeting?

Although 80% of the dice controllers we surveyed said that their #1 goal was to avoid the 7, only half of them pick a dice set that tries to do that. Nearly 40% choose a set that targets certain number groups. Seems like an odd divergence, so we dug deeper.

We dug deeper and the dice controllers we've spoken to will tell you that they're not targeting a **specific** number, nor can they reliably hit it. The consensus is that based on the combination of the **dice set chosen**, and the **shot type** that they use, they expect results to:

* Favor Horn Numbers,  fail to the 7 and settle on a box $ for the come out rolls
* Avoid the 7 and establish a "pitch count" or expected roll length (SOR)
* Cluster box numbers&#x20;
* Produce "dominant" numbers
* Perhaps favor hard ways over easy numbers

**They will also all concede that every throw is random.** Their job is to try and lessen the degree to which things are random by eliminating some of the combinations through technique and physics.

"You can control everything up to the point at which they leave your hand"

"If you can keep them from dancing, they'll sit down for you, hopefully close to the way you let them go"

"Once they hit the table, all you can hope for is that you've set them up to succeed"

"A set will only make your mechanics shine or hinder your result.\
Sets are a medium of expression of ones mechanics. Not the guarantee to a successful throw." (George)

### If you could do it ...

WinCraps examples (simple and quick)

Run a scenario at standard distribution and with the 7 at 5, favoring the appropriate numbers and more-so the hard way versions of the even numbers

**Come Bets**&#x20;

* Requires numbers are repeated (asserting the set is locking in)
* No odds -- not about profit, but simply proving that we're getting scoring hits

### How does a controller try and do it?

Reduce the amount of randomness by hiding some of the 36 combinations

* Dice Sets
  * Demonstrate a couple of them, focusing on how they target numbers and hide the 7
  * Resources:
    * HCS: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpJKeEHUItk>
    * El Toro: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtxjJ8pAbAs&t=1011s>
    * George From CY: <https://youtu.be/A1OEkFZTUgE?t=2732>
    * VDC and CDC: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGKN2XNt__I&t=4s> (plus others)
* Keep the dice "On Set" or deviating from the expected set of restricted possibilities
* Throw types&#x20;
  * Backspin (Parr or GTC)
  * Foreward Spin
  * Side Spin (Helicopter)
  * No Spin (Knuckleball)
  * On-Axis
  * Off-Axis

###

### So what's the problem?

#### The Table Fights Back

* 3 Points of Impact
  * Table
  * Diamonds
  * Table&#x20;
* Different surfaces, curves, lengths, rules

Show some slow motion showing the landings skittering and mayhem and leave that as a teaser for the epic randomness video

#### Controllers bet over their skill

Given the amount of randomness in every throw, over-betting is a huge issue


# Epic Randomness

Mechanics, Physics, and Mentality of the Perfect Toss

An awful lot has to go right for a dice controller to get it done, and the casinos aren't making it easy. In fact, if you're trying to control the dice, you're at war with the casino, the rules, table itself, and the very nature of physics.

1. You cannot slide the dice (they have to be airborne and bounce)
   1. No 2 table surfaces are alike
   2. They are getting bouncier and bouncier so you cannot simply "learn" how to land
2. You have to hit the back wall
   1. It's got alligator skin / spikes to ensure randomness
   2. Some places actually force you to hit it hard
3. Some casinos have banned setting altogether.&#x20;

> It should be noted, that these measure would not be in place if it were not possible for humans to control the dice.

**Dice Controllers will concede that every throw is random.** Their job is to try and lessen the degree to which things are random by eliminating some of the combinations through technique and physics.

### A War on Many Fronts

For the dice to come to rest, a number of things have to happen after they leave your hand

1. They will hit the table at least once (likely more)
2. They will hit the back wall
3. They will hit the table again
4. They will come to rest, settling on a number

Perfection or any level of control requires you being able to maintain control on the dice during each of those phases.  The trouble is that that each phase impacts the next, so if you're 10% off to start, that gets compounded in the next phase, and so on. And in fact, even perfection at the start can lead to imperfections during the action.

#### The Table

The table itself is a huge problem. Mainly because no two are alike.  If every table was the same you could potentially "dial in" your toss in terms of velocity, height, angle, etc. But you have these variables and more to contend with. &#x20;

Note that these variations are not there to stop dice controllers. Many of them are for cosmetics, utility, fitting in more people, maintenance, etc. But they still cause us problems.

* Length: 10'-16'
  * SL1 on one table is like SL3 or the hook on another
* Depth: 11" - 14"
* Rail width: 18" - 10"
* Wood Surface type: Pine, Birch, Slate, Glass

#### The Underlayment

Again, no two tables are alike. And this is an area where the casinos definitely are experimenting with different surfaces to promote both longevity of the cloth as well as epic randomness.

Each of these has different properties that are good for the table's longevity (or not), but also have a completely varying degree of impact on the dice and how they come to rest, and how physics works in the end.

* Nothing
* Vinyl
* Flannel
* Newspaper
* Cork
* Neoprene
* High Density Closed Cell Foam (Volara)

You will experience a massively wide variety of speed, side spin, and a a decreasing ability to stop the dice from rolling around. Many surfaces simply to not absorb energy at all.

Cork introduces side-spin and low energy absorption

Neoprene is hard rubber packed close that rebounds, therefore not absorbing as much energy

Closed Cell Foam is basically bubble wrap. There's no surface area to absorb the energy

#### The Back Wall

This is 100% put there to stop controlling the dice. The alligator skin back wall exists to randomize the dice, and every casino has a rule stating that you must hit it. Were it not for this, there's not a person in any capacity at any casino that would argue against dice control.

There are only a few suppliers of these, so they are pretty consistent.

* They are hard rubber
* There are typically 5-7 rows of diamonds
  * Based on table depth, and how much fascia they are willing to expose
* The bottom section is angled up to force the dice up into the diamonds and to squirt the dice out on a down hit.

#### Physics

There's 3 big concepts here to understand

1. Energy Reduction / Absorption
2. Angles
3. Surface Area

#### Energy

For an object to come to rest, a force needs to be applied to it to retard it's acceleration. With dice, that means that as the die hits the table, it's going to do with 4 major factors:

1. Velocity at the time of impact
   1. This tells us how much energy we have to get rid of to stop them
2. Angle that it hits the surface at
   1. If you don't land the dice flat, they simply will not slow down in any way you can control
   2. The more they move, the more chances they have to randomize. Remember, every "hit" impacts the next hit
3. What % of its surface area makes contact
   1. This is a factor in retarding the velocity/energy
4. How much energy is absorbed by the surface

Knowing those factors, you can apply math to see how slow the dice will be moving after impact. And that equation is repeated and repeated until they stop.

Note that from table (potentially multiple times) to the wall and back, acceleration will both decrease and increase depending on what the dice hit (hands, chips, the back wall, etc)

#### Angles

The angle of the dice has an impact in a few areas

*Note: Show still shots of the dice in good and bad positions, show video of what happens when they are square and when they are not!*

1. At impact, the more surface area making impact, the more energy is reduced.&#x20;
   1. This slows the dice down and potentially reduces spin
2. How square was the landing (in which direction will they re-launch?)
   1. Cut edge hit perfectly flat?
      1. Direction and axis has a chance to be maintained
   2. Corner or side Hit?
      1. Complete loss of directional/axis control
      2. Any non-square hit = randomness
3. What direction are we hitting the wall?
   1. Flat/Straight? You might have a chance to hit the diamonds squarely
   2. On any angle? The diamonds will impart side spin&#x20;
      1. If they hit the diamonds on the point or a side vs the underside ... again, you will encounter side-spin which is ... random.

#### Surface Area

1. The amount of surface area that contacts any surface has a direct correlation to the amount of energy reduced from the object in motion
   1. If you don't land the dice flat, they simply will not slow down in any way you can control
   2. If they hit the diamonds on the point or a side vs the underside ... again, you will encounter side-spin which is ... random.

### Notes

Videos/Clips Needed:

* [ ] Overhead + Far out throws on all surfaces
  * [ ] Want B-Roll to talk about angles, bounces, etc
* [ ] Video of the "hits"&#x20;
* [ ] Slo-Mo of some good rolls from out front and over top


# Overcoming Randomness

To overcome randomness, you need perfection. If you start with the assumption that you have a 100% chance to achieve perfection, then you can think about this issue by replacing perfection with bits of random, until there's nothing left. This is the argument against dice control.

Even 1% from perfection = random.

Can you do all of these things, perfectly ... and still overcome the roadblocks we've already talked about?

1. Grip
2. Swing
3. Release
4. Launch Angle
5. Velocity
6. Landing Descent Angle
7. Landing Approach Angle
8. Landing Flat
9. Landing Distance
10. Number of rotations

Other than maybe the grip, every one of those has to be not only perfect, but different for every table and for every inch of distance and position/side you are at the table, even between throws.

### Quotes

NOTE: Show these quotes during the episode as titles while you're talking

"You can control everything up to the point at which they leave your hand"

"Once they hit the table, all you can hope for is that you've set them up to succeed"

"It's in God's hands once they hit the wall"

"Dice only stay “ On Axis” roughly 2-3% of the time after contact with the back wall"&#x20;

"A set will only make your mechanics shine or hinder your result.\
Sets are a medium of expression of ones mechanics. Not the guarantee to a successful throw." (George)

"Yes there are other factors affecting the final result but if the toss and throwing form is solid it reduces tremendously the randomness. Therefore I wholeheartedly agree the set plays a part. It's still part of the equation" (Jim Spillane)

"there is no such thing as "on axis" because its impossible for dice to be on axis all the way through the toss. On axis is straight line through both dice, so if either dice is not straight even a hair its already off axis"

"Dice have a way of humbling even the most experienced shooter."&#x20;

Can you do all of these things, perfectly ... and still overcome the roadblocks we've already talked about?

### Exerting Control

What happens when we land?

1. Dropping the dice from .5", 1", ...
2. Flat
3. On Edge
4. Different surfaces
5. With momentum
6. With momentum and backspin / sidespin

How do we control that and get it to the wall under control?

1. Launch and decent angles
2. Some sort of spin
   1. Absorbs and disperses the energy
   2. Helps to land with the right faces up
3. Hit it straight on to reduce scatter

Quotes

"Control is regained when the result is interpreted by the shooter and the adjustment of set (at its easiest level) or grip and toss and release and landing zone (at the highest level) is adjusted for the next toss" (George)

"My definition is controlling the dice on the ( X,Y & Z) axis from starting point to landing or impact. Theoretically this will make the dice land as close to the flat surface as possible, reducing the kinetic energy as they move towards the back wall on first bounce. After impact, if close together **should** rotate forward, kiss the back wall, re-land and settle." (Toro) ... emphasis on "Should"

### The Goal ...

It's an impossible task. Nobody is calling their shots. Remember the actual goal ... reliably make the 7 appear 5/36 times instead of 6.  The closer you get to eliminating the epic randomness, the closer you get to making the goal possible.

If the steps you take to achieve that goal result in clusters of numbers, that's a nice side benifet, and it potentially makes sense how that could happen, but this is all still random, and we can't forget that.


# The Case Against Dice Control

People are making a ton of money selling dice control classes, seminars, books, videos and the like.

### Stanford Wong

<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8iWapKXDCH0&t=50s>

### University Study

<https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1415&context=grrj>

### Time and Annoyance at the Tables

asdlfkjadfs

### Cost: Time, Effort, Equipment

"Never Lose" Gambling systems are all over the place

### The Snake Oil Salesmen

"Never Lose" Gambling systems are all over the place


# Unpacking the Studies

What does the Monmouth University tell us about Dice Control

<https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1415&context=grrj>

### Summary and Major Points

### Where they got it right

### Where they got it wrong

### Inconclusive Conclusions


# Parr Toss


# Chopper Toss


# Betting


# Dealing


# Throwing


# Leaving


# Resources

Links and information about the tools we use for tracking, logging, and practicing


# Golden Throws List


# Upcoming Videos

What's on tap at Pro Craps?

**Craps in a minute shorts**

* [x] "You might be a douchebag if ..."
* [ ] "Just say no!"
  * 000 Roulette
  * 6/5 BJ
  * Side Bets

### Instruction

* [ ] How do you teach a friend to play?
* [ ] Picking the right table (Basic Scouting)
* [ ] Advanced Table Scouting
* [ ] Trend Spotting
* [ ] Dice Control Analysis
* [ ] Shooter Types and Betting Strategies for each
* [ ] Strategy: House Money
  * Define It
  * Get to it quickly
  * Use it
* [ ] Tier 2 Strategies
  * Getting out of the hand
  * Going on the attack
* [ ] Rule of 10s
* [ ] Removing a don't (contract bets)
* [ ] Put bets and why

### Playing with ...

1. Your go to work money
2. Short Stacks
3. Scared Money
4. Careful Money
5. Fuck You Money

### Playing with a HUGE bankroll

1. Bubble Craps with a normal bankroll
2. Online
3. Now, you can finally ladder or marty!

### The Pressing Algorithm

1. When to press
2. What to press
3. How much to press
4. When to stop

### 4 phase approach

1. Get Even (Clean Rack - Bankroll Neutral)
2. Get Up (Breathe)
3. Get Locked (Hit your goal)
4. GO
   1. Home?
   2. For a little dip (short stack)?
   3. All in (playing with excess)

### Goals

1. Per Shooter
2. Per Session
3. Per Trip
4. Short Term (pay for a trip or a car or a stereo)
5. Long Term Goals (Bankroll Building)

### Challenges ...

1. Win your last bet and walk
2. 3 Unit challenge
3. 10% and walk
4. Your best 3, 5, 9 roll only strategy
5. Your best regression strategy
6. What's your "Rage Quit" play (one roll and you're out the door)

### #Badass Craps Moves

* [ ] Skill 66
* [ ] Riccochet
* [ ] Parlay Press
* [ ] Wedge
* [ ] Rabbits
* [ ] Bank Street ($50/$75)

### #Dumbass Craps Moves

* [ ] Over-extending yourself
* [ ] Betting on phantom skill
* [ ] 5 Count

### 5 things you don't know about ...

1. Probability and Odds
2. House Edge

### 5 best thing about Come Bets

1. They come down after they pay (money off the table is good!)
2. Odds are paid fairly
3. Low house edge
4. 1 roll "hedge" while coming out

### 5 ways to hit a Home Run

1. DIY Repeater
2. Tier Pressure
3. Philly Special

### 5 cool ways to bet "across"

1. $204 ($50 for 1 on all bets)
2. $320 Tiered Regression
3. Wedge
4. Philly Special
5. Tier Pressure
6. Bonus Idea: YOLO

### 5 cool ways to beat a $25 table

1. Squeeze Play
2. $25/$30 Doey Don't
3. 555 6,7,8
4. Vitamix

### 10 ways to work your rack

1. Organize your bankroll by shooter
2. Organize your bankroll by amount
3. Use quadrants to separate your money for different uses
4. Know when your bankroll is "clean"
5. Know when you've hit your goal and LOCK it
6. Shadow betting
7. Stage your next move
8. Count and track rolls
9. Press/Collect tracker
10. Bet Levels for Laddering

### 5 Reasons craps is the best game in the casino

1. It's the only game where you win money for someone else.

### 5 Reasons craps is the worst game in the casino

1. hmmmmm

### 5 things I hate about the light side

1. The fucking 7
2. The come out roll (wasted opportunity or total wipeout)
3. FOMO when you show discipline

### 5 things I hate about the dark side

1. Uptight Assholes
2. Laying Odds
3. FOMO on a long roll
4. Limted win opportunities
5. The come ou troll
6. No "home run" or "monster roll"

### 5 reasons never to play Crapless (or 6:5 or 000)

1. You have nowhere to run (not always lays are allowed)
2. On a 7, 100% of the money goes to the house
3. Forced everyone to bet on 1 side (always us vs them)
4. House Edge
5. Eliminates the Dark Side and the Come
6. There's no chance they put out a  new game that's good for you

### Full Play Strategies

* [ ] 160 Across: All In
* [ ] Odds Maker
* [ ] Come Ladder
* [ ] Basic Don't Plays
* [ ] 75/3/3/3
* [ ] Hedgeless Horseman
* [ ] The Mind - Inside or Outside
* [ ] The Mind - Boggling 4 & 10 (dark or light)
* [ ] Switch to the Darkside
* [ ] Skill Switch
* [ ] Red Cross
* [ ] 6 7, 8

### Dark Side Strategies

* [ ] 3 Point Dolly
* [ ] Dolly Ladderson
* [ ] Negative Progressions
* [ ] Positive Progressions

### 3-Tier Light Side Strategy Building

#### Opening Moves

* [ ] Squeeze Play
* [ ] Wedge
* [ ] Dallas Drawdown
* [ ] Skill $66
* [ ] $108 to $64 (from CEG)
* [ ] Tier Pressure 4 Hit Repeat
* [ ] Philly Special

#### Playing the Long Roll

* [ ] Philly Special
* [ ] Half Press
* [ ] Press to Color

### Team Play

* [ ] When and how does the team lock up a win?
* [ ] What happens if that happens quick?
* [ ] Working together
* [ ] Betting on your shooters
* [ ] Adjustments
* [ ] Financials
* [ ] Agreements


# Upcoming Podcast Topics

What will we be talking about on Fireside Craps?

### Guests

* [ ] George
* [ ] Paul P
* [ ] Bryan
* [x] Ken
* [x] Greg
* [ ] Subscribers and Followers ... why does it always have to be someone famous?

### Stories

* [x] Share Rick's story about not helping a noob
* [x] Ken's professional gambler story
* [ ] Anniversary / Karma
* [ ] The guy that was a former dealer that was a total pain in the ass
* [ ] ”I’m here to make a withdrawal”
* [x] The Family: Lucky Cathy, Zach making $750 while I break even

### You might be a douchebag if…

* [ ] Disruptive Betting, Arms, Etc (General Etiquette)
* [ ] Judgemental Bettor
* [x] Asshole Don’t Bettors
* [x] Asshole Right Bettors (Suck it, Darksider)
* [ ] You are a dice control hater
* [ ] You're just a little bit "too helpful" ... let's grow the game but don't be a douche

### Just Say No!

* [x] Crapless Craps
* [ ] Shitty Payouts (30 for 1, etc)
* [ ] Bouncy Tables
  * [ ] "The more they roll around the less you stick around."
  * [ ] "Even if you kiss that wall you can’t stop them."
* [ ] Pig Vigs
* [ ] Casinos with an Ante
* [ ] Roll To Win
* [ ] 000 Roulette
* [ ] 6/5 BJ
* [x] Forced Line Bets

### Trending / Tips

* [ ] Eyeing up the racks
* [ ] Tracking what you see
* [ ] Picking a casino and table to play at
* [ ] Getting your bet on (come in slow or go all in?)
* [ ] Translate your practice to the table
  * [ ] Self Talk
* [x] $25 Tables

### The world according to John

* [ ] Dice Control
* [ ] Team Play
* [ ] Get more young folks and women into the game!
* [ ] Is Random Roller or Chicken Feeder Offensive?
* [ ] Mental Toughness (team play vs solo)
* [ ] Discipline
  * [ ] Goals
  * [ ] Money Management in General
* [ ] The rule of 10s
  * [ ] "I'll do anything twice"
* [ ] Controlling what you can control
* [ ] Scouting Tables and Players
* [ ] Starting up a conversation
* [ ] I'm not the man I want to be, but thank God I'm not the man I used to be
* [ ] Raising your bar and having to live up to it (putting yourself at risk)

### Gambling Addiction vs. Professional Gambling.

* [ ] What is a Gambling Addiction......actually?
* [ ] Is a person's addiction to Gambling, or to the game they love playing?
* [ ] What actually makes a person a "Professional Gambler"?
* [ ] Is gambling only a problem if you lose more than you win? Is it not also an "addiction" if you're consistently profitable? If not...why?

###


