Respect the 7

You're only a turn of the die away from disaster

Why

The 7 comes, on average, every 6 rolls. We all know this. But to really understand why this is the case, you need to connect with the dice themselves.

What

• Every number has a sister number, on the opposite side of the die

• These numbers always add to 7

• The dice don't land and stop at the same time. So, as soon as one die has stopped

  • No matter what face of that die is showing, you can always make a seven with the other die

  • There is ALWAYS a possible match to make a 7

  • 1 can be matched by 6

  • 2 by 5

  • 3 by 4

  • 4 by 3

  • 5 by 2

  • 6 by 1

• This is not true of any other number

  • For example, if one die is showing a 5, the total can never be 2, 3, 4, or 5

That's some insane power. It's not just about the number of possible combinations. There's not "that much" statistical difference between the 5 ways to roll a 6 or an 8 and the 6 ways to roll a 7. It's only 1 roll extra.

The power is in the way that the extra combination manifests, and the fact that you are always, 100% of the time halfway to a 7 on every single roll of the dice. This is an inescapable fact and it is the reason we have the 1:6 chance on every roll of seeing big red.

So ... what do we do about it?

Strategy

Especially with random shooters, every strategy should include some play on the 7.

• Pure don't play

• Hybrid play (i.e. Iron Cross from the Don't Pass)

• Mixing in DC bets with place bets (maybe later in a hand)

• Laying bets to accommodate other strategy

• Embrace the "Short Game" if your bankroll allows for it

Dice Influence

They say (as do the numbers) that the 7 comes every 6 rolls? Does that mean that after 5 rolls it's 90% more likely to roll? That on the 8th roll it's overdue? That it can't roll on the first one? That it can't repeat?

All false. The 7 has a 1 in 6 rolling on every roll. There's no snowball or anything other than pure mechanics behind this.

The more the dice skitter and roll, where every face is up at some point, the greater the chances of matching up with the already stopped die. This is why casinos are moving to even more bouncy surfaces, to promote more face contact.

It's also why Dice Influencers decry the "Crazy Random Shooter". We like seeing less activity on the dice. Less chances for that marriage to happen.

Can you mitigate the reality of random? Yes.

First, let's look at how it happens. We know that when 1 die stops, the other die is literally a turn away from matching up and being a 7. If the dice come off the wall hot, and one is spinning and rolling wildly after the first on che stops ...

• Every time it does a full rotation in a tumble, the sister number to the already stopped die shows up.

• If that die rolls over 5 times, there's 5 times that it could stop on the sister number

• If that die rolls over only once (or less than once), you reduce the number of times it has a chance to match.

We're not saying that it eliminates the possibility, but if you were to be blindfolded and swing a bat at a swinging pinata ... would you rather have one shot at it or 5? You can bet that the Casino wants 5 swings at that second die matching up with the first one.

Change how you throw the dice!

We're not talking about "dice control" here ... whether you believe in that or not is irrelevant. Believe in the facts of opportunity and probability based on the action of the die off the back wall.

• Toss them gently

• Kiss them off the back wall

• Try to get them to roll over only once or twice after the hit

• Reduce the amount of skitter and roll, and you reduce the number of match-up opportunities for the 7

"Dice Controllers"

Practiced Dice Influencers attempt to more forcefully mitigate the pure randomness to some degree by taking all of that and adding additional accuracy, controlling spin and physics, velocity, and angles to "control" what comes.

That's a holy war for a different day, though...

So long as we can better visualize what they're doing and why, we can be more tactical

Controllers are doing all the same things ....

• Very soft toss

• Very consistent landings

• Very consistent energy off the back wall

• (All the same things that we're talking about above!)

Additionally, they:

• "set" the dice to try and hide the sevens inside the axis

• Throw with consistent spin to help control the action after the hit.

• IF...

  • The dice land flat, they are likely to re-lauch flat

  • They hit the diamonds and hopefully the only 7 combination is from an over-pitch

    • Bounce straight back (nipple hit)

    • Bounce straight down (slap the underside)

    • Spin Sideways

A lot has to go right, and in slow-motion it actually looks pretty random, but that's what's actually happening on many controlled throws.

Where does it go south? When the dice don't land flat, were thrown on an angle, or hit the diamonds askew. Most controlled throws have that element of random in them because of human imperfection, but it's that 15-20% that can knock the 7 back 2, 3 or more times.

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